How will the economy affect the DTV transition

With every day passing by the gas price is up and the date for the DTV transition moving closer. With the economy in mind I wonder how the transition might be affected.  When the economy is up  we would not ask us this.  However, the pricetag a converterbox might be a great difference for consumers living on the margin. Concerns have been raised. Such as Best Buys CEO comment on the fact in January at CES 2008.

Also, part of comverterboxes are made of plastics, parts are being flown in or shipped from Asia to shelves or production facilities in the U.S.

Little has been reported about converterboxes in a economic perspective. Will prices increase and in that way surpass the NTIA coupons program and the worth of a coupon?

It would be interesting to learn more about the economic side of the transition for a consumer but with a broader perspective on the market, products and prices.

Will there be a choice for some to fill a tank with gas or buy a converterbox? I really hope not.

Anders Bjers

GAO Reports – Only Every Other Knows To Act

Yesterdays hearing in the House Telecommunications & Internet Subcommittee about the status of the DTV transition revealed that 84% of Americans are now aware about the DTV transition. Although, only half of them who needs to act are prepared to do so. And, there seams to be a shortage of converter boxes.

The overall awareness are growing and campaigns are showing good results. I would expect that local TV-stations and newsmedia are doing the large part of the job to move the consumer awareness forward.

However, I believe that stakeholders need to get the message out in a more practical way – that is -what to do and also clarify who needs to act even more practical. I also wonder how local businesses are preparing to help out with installations for both consumers and local entities like housing and apartment buildings. A good example is Univisions digital Squad that is a grass root campaign in the making. Street teams will show consumers how to use converterboxes. Thats the way to do it!

Business week and Reuters reports about a possible glitch in the coupons program as well. Washington Post  also reports that many are still unprepared.

There is little talk abut the fact that some consumers need to change the set up of stations on the DTV converterbox the day after the transition, when some tv-stations will continue on a different frequency than before. That is a second action during the transition. Many consumers will thing they are done the day they have successfully made their converter box running smooth.

But GAO reports an interesting miss match. About half of the ones who needs to act don’t recognize the fact. And about 30% of people who are unaffected – are planning to act! So, there is a great mission to bring clarification to households. I wonder if there are going to be some more specific out-reach campaigns in order to bring people up to a second level of awareness.

But also, what are the actual status when it comes to converterboxes? To have empty shelves is a nightmare. In Sweden we were checking the supply of boxes constantly. I am sure the same thing happens in the U.S. But, more importantly, there was no regulation on the Swedish market when it came to providers of converterboxes as there is in the U.S. That resulted in a broad choice of products. However, that put the pressure on consumers to understand what they needed and should buy. A delicate task for many, not comfortable to buy electronic goods. Even if boxes looks pretty much the same and has a similar pricetag, they have variations on the inside that makes a difference. So, it is important to tell consumers to buy a box with the option to return it and get another brand. If there was problems with the reception in the first place a different box could work properly due to fx the sensitivity of the receiver. I think it is a mistake to limit the market and in that sense not providing a wide range of choices for consumers but more importantly – to avoid a real shortage of boxes.

/ Anders Bjers

U.S DTV Awareness On The Rise

News has been low lately about the DTV switch. But today a survey reveals that 6 out of 10 Americans now are aware of the U.S. transition to DTV. BroadcastingCable reports about the survey made by Frank N. Magid Associates. In September 2007 a survey found that only 34% knew about the transition. U.S consumer awareness is on the rise and that is good news. However, it is still a good deal of work that remains. The next question for consumers to be asked is more crucial, that is: If they know if they are affected by the transition at all. Cable and satellite viewers are not affected directly.

In Sweden, one of few countries that has completed a national transition, the DTV switch is over and done. Last survey sheds new light on the transition. First, Consumers who were most negative to do the switch, now is among the most positive – their low expectations were exceeded. Second, now one third of elderly people are actively viewing a greater amount of channels than before the switch. Third, most people had a converter box installed before the actual transition – that proofs that the information awareness campaigns worked well. Mission completed!

Anders Bjers

DTV Transition – Test Run Or Not?

New York Times reports that FCC Commissioner Michael Copps wants to do a real life DTV-test run. That is: to shut down analog signals and broadcast in digital only. Copps suggests this should be possible to do in some test-markets. Among sources reporting about this is: AP, Boston Herald, Mercury News, MSNBC and Washington Post among many many others.

I think it is a great idea. The US follows in the steps of most European countries that is or already have completed a national or semi-national transition to DTV. In most countries the transition is made in phases. Why the U.S. didn’t choose that path is a mystery.
The U.S challenge? To pick the right market for this test run.

Or is it a test? A test suggests that you switch Off the analog signals and then On again. I think that is hard. I believe that you turn off the signal and then you continue in digital only until the real transition day. Because if you re to turn on the analog signals again, few consumers would bother to get the equipment. Why? Because consumers tend to wait as much as possible to change. And also, would they, consumers, really believe that the TV signal would be shut down? In Sweden’s very first phase a majority of consumers didn’t really believe that the analog TV-signal were going to be shut down. People said -” can you really do that?”.

But when the signal was down it also sent a different message, but even more important, to the audience in the whole country: The transition to DTV will take place.

That kind of “consumer awareness” is something that the U.S. is in need of with less than a year left to the national transition.

You can read the letter from Mr Copps to FCC Chairman Martin here: Letter from Comm. M. Copps. And the reply to Commissioner Copps here: Letter from Chrm. Martin

So, stay tuned when and were a test run will take place. Bets are taken, clock is ticking..

Anders Bjers

One DTV Converter For The Whole House

Today I saw that someone had made a Google search on the subject “One converter box for the whole house”. It caught my attention because it is a logic question that many will ask when they know they need a box.

It goes something like – If I have three or four TV sets can I have one box?

When you have several TV-sets in the house but little interest in technology you probably want to make the transition as easy as possible. Creating converter boxes is no rocketscience but to figure out consumers needs and demand and make a great box, that is a challenge. A smooth transition is in many ways the same as easy-to-use technology.
A Swedish company saw the the need from households, elderly and landlords who needed a simple solution for the TV-set. The company made a “Multibox”. It works for several TV-sets simultaneously. You connect the box to the antenna, preferably up in the attic. If you have a system of cables already installed in the house you let the box be connected to that system. Little changes, no extra remote controls, something granny appreciates.

I don’t know if this would work in the U.S. but it is really interesting thought if the U.S market do have a need for a simple solution – one box for the whole house. Another smart thing is that this box still let the analog signal run through so you can continue watching that Low Power TV station that won’t transfer to digital signals.

Check out the Multibox.

/Anders Bjers

P.S. Another smart thing, with a Multibox, the VCR continues to work “as usual”… D.S.

U.S DTV Public Opinion Shifts From What To How

The past six months have been much about bringing awareness to consumers about the DTV transition. The mission for NAB and all the other stakeholders has been to awaken the general audience to the fact that TV as they know it is about to change: From analog to digital. That in combination with the offer to grab two DTV converter box coupons from NTIA.

I dare to say that the big push is almost over, in its first phase. (you cant stop this mission until the D-day is here but you need to move on at the same time with new challenges).

I believe there is a logic order in every national transition to DTV. The next step in this logic order is this:

Consumers are moving from WHAT to HOW. This is the zone we are about to enter with full force in the US right now.

New challenges are about to arise for stakeholders when consumers are starting to act on the messages they have received.

And the focus will be on the consumer from now on. What do they need, how will they really receive TV before and after the transition day, in digital quality.

And consumers will enter a new phase – the djungle of choices to make

This is a real challenge for stakeholders to become a supporting partner for every consumer entering a store to grab that converter box.

From now on and the remaining part of 2008 consumers will be forced to think through how they want to receive TV in the future. What kind of channels they think they want to watch and how much money do they want or need to spend.

And retailers will be there for them because the DTV transition offers a second season of Christmas like shopping for electronic goods. With the weakened U.S economy this transition will be a bigger thing than of the economy were strong and flourishing. Consumers will be both forced and “inspired” to spend billions of dollars on electronics.

So, the focus will be on the actions, demands and needs that consumers will have to be able to view TV as usual.

And the focus will be on retailers because that is the place were the shift from analog to digital TV really happens.

In that situation everyone will be looking for answers to common questions. The one retailer that will become the true expert on DTV will have consumers greatest confidence and that will lead to great sales.

How can I make these statements?

First, my own experience from transitions in Sweden tells this.

Second, signs are surfacing that strengthens my theory.

One is that Google search patterns has changed. During the past months most searches has been focusing on “DTV answers”. As a reaction to all the PSA:s put out by NAB and stakeholders.

A few weeks back people tend to search for more practical answers. I would say that only a rough third are searching for “DTV answers“. The rest is looking for information about converter boxes, antennas, reception and other kind of DTV related information.

Another sign is that reporting among local newspapers has changed a bit. From the big WHAT to HOW. Washington Post blogger Rob Pegoraro writes about his a first hand experience of the shift.

A third sign is that new stakeholders has appeared on the scene. One of them is U.S. PIRG – the federation of state Public Interest Research Groups.

Recently U.S. PIRG released the results from a national survey about retailers, consumers and the DTV transition. The titel of the survey is: Mixed Signals: How TV Retailers Mislead Consumers on the Digital Television (DTV) Transition

With the help of secret shoppers U.S. PIRG reports:

# 81% of sales staff provided inaccurate information about converter boxes.
# 78% of sales staff provided inaccurate information about the coupon program.
# 42% of sales staff provided inaccurate information about the transition date.
# 20% of sales staff tried to up-sell surveyors to digital TVs or upscale converter boxes.

This is a core challenge for stakeholders: To get sales staff to understand the real effects of the DTV transition.

That is: local issues and implications.

Examples:

- What about consumers reception.

- How to connect a converter box to a range of other equipment that consumers have started to use with TV sets.

- How to convert battery powered TV sets.

- How to continue to receive Low Powerd Broadcasters even if the don’t broadcast in digital after the transition (they do not need to)

- and other practical or semi-practical questions.

I will get back with some practical suggestions on how to manage this. But the shift is here and this is were the real work begins to make the transition a smooth experience for consumers.

Best / Anders Bjers

Wanted: DTV Spokespersons In Charge

DTV information campaigns are continuing the work to overcome the challenge in bringing information to every consumer affected by the transition. Media is covering the topic almost daily or weekly at least. Comments pours into this blog on the subject. One of the latest is this one below, I want to share it here as a sign of how many consumers may be feeling for the moment about the DTV transition.

“I am interested in what all of this means to me. I have lived in a rural area from birth. Our TV reception has always been marginal, with just a couple of stations with decent reception and about 5 more with varying degrees of watchable reception. Locally, there are about 5 stations broadcasting DTV. I am still totally analog, so far. It seems that this coming transition is not well organized. I think a leader must emerge and take the risk to get the converter boxes to the public. At this time, a converter box is not available at my local Radio Shack. I am semi-patiently waiting. I haven’t signed up for my coupons, yet.”

I hope the launch of converter boxes in the coming weeks can help this reader. Often the reception will become much better with digital TV signals. If the reception still is poor after the converter box is connected, the problem might be the antenna. If it is old and worn, it needs to be replaced.

The question of a leader to emerge is interesting. As of now there is not one single person who is in charge of the whole transition. The press conference at Best Buy in Washington D.C last week was a gathering with all the top stakeholders on stage together. I doubt one single person will step forward as the person to be in over-all charge of the transition. However, what I do think is missing right now is one or a few real spokespersons. That has the ability to explain the transition easily and answer common questions from consumers about the transition with clarity. I think media would appreciate this as well.

It would make it much easier to bring one message to the audience about the transition. Even when stakeholders gather together on a stage they have different views on what information is important in their own perspective. By all means, they do have various roles in the transition. The DTV coalition, federal authorities and other stakeholders are doing a great job in working together but they would be able to make the understanding about the DTV transition even easier for consumers if they could pick a few spokespersons that would meet the audience both face to face and through media.

To work together and be united is great and creates a solid base of trust to work from, but it may also confuse consumers when many talking heads that don’t differ much from the politicians now overflowing broadcasts. One or a few spokesperson with deep understanding and a manner that enables them to communicate a complex issue in a simple and easy way – that would be a factor that could help smooth the transition – from a consumers perspective.

If consumers are doing great in the time ahead of the transition – the whole transition will be splendid.

Anders Bjers

P.S Funny how things can play out. Just after I punched publish for this latest post I did a Google News search on “DTV transition”. I found a piece from Multichannel News only 12 hours old headlined “Hill Lawmakers want DTV Czar”. Bullseye… D.S

Converter boxes Now Sold At Wal-Marts

The first chain to sell converter boxes is Wal-Mart! This week the first converter boxes can see daylight at Wal-Marts across the U.S. The boxes offered are two: One from Thomson RCA and another from Magnavox. Both sold at $49.87. They are also found online but only sold in physical stores this far. The Magnavox box have features like “a trilingual on-screen display, audio/video output, antenna input (F-type connector), remote control and a digital audio output for use with optional surround sound systems”, according to the web page.

With a “DTV coupon” from NTIA, consumers have to pay about ten dollars for a converter box.

This is off course great news for many consumers waiting somewhat in-patiently to buy a converter box. Wal-Mart releases their offer of converter boxes almost a week ahead of other retailers roll-outs of boxes to stores.

Anders Bjers

State Of The DTV Transition – Mixed But Going Forward

Yesterday was the big day for DTV stakeholders and officials. At the Best Buy meetup in D.C the NTIA:s DTV coupon was unveiled as a red “look-a-like” credit card that is worth $40 each.

Media is reporting about the event but with mixed results. It seams to me that even the stakeholders don’t really know for sure how many households that are really affected by the transitions.  Also,  the level of knowledge among consumers are unclear. Recent reports and surveys give varied results. Kim Hart at Washington Post writes, “consumers don’t know the transition is coming and have never heard about these converter boxes”. She also notes that this will be an interesting year.

U.S newsagency AFP writes about the event headlining it as “U.S gears up or the DTV switch” and cites FCC Chairman Martin saying ” more needs to be done” to inform the US consumers about the upcoming transition. AFP also sorts through some stats about the state of the transition as of now.

Media and bloggers love statistics and love when facts are unclear. Clear facts should be provided in sync among stakeholders, thats bascis Especially when they are on stage together. Wired blogger Bryan Gardiner picks up just that and keeps the ball of uncertainty rolling in his post.  Gardiner is citing Best Buys spokesperson Brian Lucas who comments on converter box sales, saying: “It’s a difficult situation because nobody has done this before. So, yes, there’s some uncertainty.”  My questions is – why don´t best buy send a team overseas to study sales and retailers efforts in Europe where actual transition has taken place. In Sweden for example the retailers really had a second Christmas season because of the transition. And during times of economic instability that shouldn’t be to bad. And I am firmly believing that consumer behaviour are just about the same in the U.S as in Europe. As well as retailers situation.

The Insignia converter box that Best buy will sell is a very simple box. Electronic house reporter Rachel Cericola writes about that box.

The Consumer Electronics Association, CEA, released new results from research that revealed the top sources consumers are using to learn about the transition. The prime source is television (72%), family and friends (39%) and the Internet (26%).  I think in any case this showes what important role the media itself will play to “move” the consumers into action.

I am astonished that either NAB or any of the stakeholders made a podcast or webbcast of yesterdays event. If there is anything important in a transition to do, it is to bring out unified messages. To bring down the level of uncertainty. I think this event was a great opportunity to spread the word from the top stakeholders to everyone involved in the mission. Also, it would be a great source for media to embed and pick up along with their own reporting. Even if the transition will be a hyper local event there will be few moments when the heads of the stakeholders share the stage together as they did yesterday.

Anders Bjers

Stakeholders Unite Today at Best Buy Box Event In D.C

Today there is a grand get together at a local Best Buy Store in Washington D.C. The chief executives of the prime stakeholders are gathering to promote the “soon to come to a store near you” – DTV converter box. Few have seen any but many are asking where they are. Best Buy promises to get their boxes on shelfs on the 18th of February. However, it will only be one of a kind to choose from – Best Buys own brand Insignia. The box will cost $50-$70. The question is if other retailers will match Best Buys offer with a greater selection. And it is only a month ago that Best Buy Executives expressed concerns and even being nervous about not being able to get boxes on shelfs in time.

On stage today you will find: The U.S Commerce Secretary Mr Carlos Gutierrez, FCC chairman Kevin Martin, NAB president and CEO David K. Rehr, National Cable & Telecommunications Association, NCTA, president Kyle McSlarrow together with Consumer Electronics Association, CEA, vice president Jason Oxman and Best Buy senior VP Michael Vitelli. NTIA is represented by the Secretary of Commerce.

Some of the stakeholders that gathers today in D.C will also be the ones that consumers will hold accountable if something in the transition backfires. I think it is a great thing that they come together because it is easy to believe as one local paper put it that Congress has ordered broadcasters to shut down the analog transmissions and switch to digital. The facts is that many stakeholders are working together as never before to make this transition a smooth one. I hope the stakeholders can put a just as positive spin on the DTV transition as some superduper political contenders has done in their campaigns. After all, there are few national events to match a national transition to digital television. Be sure that this D-day will be greatly covered by news media.

Local newspapers are picking up the story about the transition in an increasing amount. Most of them put out the basic facts about the transition. Even if the confusion still seam to be great. I guess the primaries have put enough on peoples minds to care about little else.

The thing is that the market should be flooded this year with boxes to choose from and the prices should start to drop a bit. No one wants people to wait to the last few days before the actual transition. Even if you have to count somewhere around 5-10 percent who will do just that.

I get messages from people all over the US who is asking why the converter box coupons are “released” but no boxes in stores to be find anywhere. One lady even asked me to send her a box and attached her address. Well, it’s great that people put confidence in this blog but we do not sell converter boxes, yet…

But what I do offer is knowledge and experience. Or that might be spelled Hope to make the Change to DTV, in these primary times. Because it will be an astonishing difference – to the better. And I am talking TV now..

Yours truly

/ Anders Bjers